The big headline on the poll is that 40 percent of young people say they will “definitely vote.”
Not only do they say they’ll support Democrats by a 66 to 32 percent margin, they can’t stand President Trump and they’re liberal on policy issues: President Trump’s job approval among young Americans stands at 26 percent, with no statistical difference between all Americans under 30 and likely voters.
The IOP poll, the 36th release in a series dating back to 2000, also indicates strong levels of support among young Americans under 30 for a federal jobs guarantee (56% support, 63% among likely voters), eliminating tuition and fees at public colleges and universities for students from families that make up to $125,000 (56% support, 62% among likely voters), and for Single Payer Health Care (55% support, 67% among likely voters).
So the likely voters are more liberal than the young population overall.
But I’d like to point to one other interesting finding here: that the likely vote for Trump in 2020 among the young is well below what it was in 2016.
According to exit polls, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 55 to 37 percent among those under 30, but now you’ve already got 59 percent saying they’ll “never” vote for him, and the anti-Trump vote could go higher.
In 1984, for example, Ronald Reagan crushed Walter Mondale among young people by double digits, and in 1988 the scintillating George H.W. Bush won voters over 30 by 53 to 47 percent.
Unless they change their minds in the next two years, young people could come through for the Democratic candidate in numbers comparable to 2008, when Barack Obama won young voters by more than 30 points.
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